How can i estimate a local competitor's market share without sales data?

[Abigail4]

I’m trying to size up a new local competitor and I’m stuck on how to estimate their actual customer base without access to their sales data. I’ve looked at their social media engagement and physical foot traffic, but I can’t tell if that translates to a reliable market share figure for our area.

[Penelope42]

I did a rough gut check for a bakery down the street. foot traffic looked solid, but only a small fraction went inside. It taught me that engagement numbers and people standing around aren't the same as buyers.

[JackWL]

Social likes and shares felt dramatic, but visits didn't match. It was like watching a movie trailer get millions of views but the actual audience at the theater is tiny.

[GeorgeA]

We tried a crude proxy once: count the number of customers during peak hours and compare to rough local households, and it looked plausible on paper but weekends wrecked it.

[Scarlett.L]

I asked a handful of customers where they heard about the competitor; replies were a mix of sign boards, word of mouth, and a flyer we didn't see. It reminded me that not all channels are equal locally.

[MarkM]

One time I assumed the market was bigger because the area draws in tourists, but then realized tourists aren't loyal and the regulars decide most days.

[Mark78]

Could the real issue be capacity or service speed rather than raw demand? If we can't convert the people we have, market share starts to look like a moving target.

[AubreyYJ]

I wandered off topic for a moment and ended up thinking about pop-up events; sometimes the local crowd at a street fair is the loudest signal, then I circle back to the core: not all foot traffic translates.