How can I forecast quarterly tax payments in a rolling cash flow plan?

[AdamRM]

I’m trying to build a rolling 12-month cash flow forecast for my small service business, but I keep getting stuck on how to realistically project my quarterly tax payments. My revenue is irregular, so estimating that outflow feels like a guess every time.

[ElizabethW]

I’m stuck on projecting quarterly tax payments too. I keep a separate tax bucket in the forecast and treat it like a real line item. I estimate the annual liability from year-to-date profit, add a small cushion, then split that into four, and I adjust after each actual quarter if profits swing. It’s rough but it keeps surprises from wrecking the bank balance.

[GeorgeS]

I tried using last year’s total as a baseline for the quarterly payments and then nudged it up or down based on how this year's revenue was tracking. When months felt slow, I shaved the projection a bit; when orders popped, I left a bigger cushion. It helped, but the gaps still show up in unpredictable ways.

[AdamHG]

Maybe the real problem isn’t the quarterly numbers at all—is late client payment the bigger cash gap here?

[Jeffrey_C]

I even started over with a simple line and then drifted into tracking other random costs like marketing spend, which turned out to be just as bouncy. By the end I was back to the basics, but the exercise reminded me how knobs in a forecast pull the whole thing around, sometimes in strange directions.