How do staking rewards stack up against inflation for my validator?

[Noah95]

I’m trying to figure out if my staking rewards are actually profitable after accounting for the network’s inflation rate. My validator is showing a solid APY, but I’m worried the new token issuance is just diluting my holdings faster than the rewards are adding to them.

[EvelynIL]

I stared at the numbers for weeks and felt like I was chasing a moving target. APY looked solid, but the more tokens got issued, the harder it was to tell if my slice was growing.

[NatalieJ]

I exported the payouts and the circulating supply growth from the explorer for the last year and lined them up. I tracked the balance before and after rewards and the ongoing issuance; in some months the balance barely moved, even with payouts.

[HarperEH]

Real growth is rewards minus inflation, roughly, and if inflation runs hotter than rewards you lose real value. For example, 6% rewards vs 8% inflation equals about -2% real.

[Dennis_L]

Do you see the same issue if you compute the real return per token rather than just the quoted APY?