How should I model capex timing in a rolling cash flow forecast?

[AriaXL]

I’m trying to build a more reliable rolling cash flow forecast for my small service business, but I keep getting tripped up by how to realistically project our upcoming capital expenditures. I have a rough idea of the big equipment replacement we’ll need next year, but I’m never sure if I should spread that cost across the months leading up to it or just have it hit all at once in the forecast.

[Stephen.W]

We decided to spread the big replacement over the two quarters before it plus the purchase month. It smooths the cash swings and gives us a little room to adjust if the project slips.

[Alexander89]

Tried to show it all in the purchase month once, and the following month looked awful on cash, even with a line of credit. It was a relief when I moved it to a ramp.

[AaronT]

Maybe the problem isn’t the timing at all but whether we’re modeling the costs as fixed or flexible. Maintenance days, uptime risk, and a backup plan drive the numbers more than the exact purchase month.

[VioletYB]

Do you have a reliable vendor lead time or warranty window that you can anchor the spend to?