What to do when real-time bus times keep jumping around?

[GregoryH]

I’ve been trying to plan my commute using the new real-time passenger information system, but the predicted bus arrival times keep jumping around wildly just as I’m about to leave. It’ll say 3 minutes, then suddenly 10, then back to 5. Has anyone else found this makes it harder to decide when to actually walk to the stop, rather than easier?

[OliviaDC]

Yep, that happens here too. It’ll flip from 3 minutes to 10 and back while I’m grabbing my bag. I stopped trying to time the walk to the stop and started going when it’s been stable for a minute or so. If it changes again and the bus is already gone, I just accept that and adjust the plan for the next one.

[JustinA]

I tried tracking it for a week. The numbers jump around all day: 5, 9, 3, 6, you name it. The result was I mistimed the walk more often than not. Now I use a simple rule: if the estimate holds under six minutes for two updates in a row, I walk; otherwise I wait a bit longer, even though that sometimes means missing the bus.

[Edward.R]

I keep wondering if the problem is the data feed or just real traffic chaos. Maybe every tiny delay at a side street makes the prediction swing. Do you think the feed is reliable enough to base a walk on?

[Avery66]

Last week I stood in the drizzle, watching the bus breeze by while the screen kept flashing random numbers. I grabbed a coffee from the corner shop and watched the numbers flicker, then decided to walk anyway. It felt slow at first, but at least I arrived with time to breathe. Not sure if that helps your question, though.